Influence of synoptic and local atmospheric patterns on PM10 air pollution levels: a model application to Naples (Italy)

摘要

We investigate the relationship between synoptic/local meteorological patterns and PM10 air pollution\udlevels in the metropolitan area of Naples, Italy. We found that severe air pollution crises occurred when\udthe 850 and 500 hpa geopotential heights and their relative temperatures present maximum values\udabove the city. The most relevant synoptic parameter was the 850 hPa geopotential height, which is\udlocated about 1500 m of altitude. We compared local meteorological conditions (specifically wind stress,\udrain amount and thermal inversion) against the urban air pollution levels from 2009 to 2013. We found\udseveral empirical criteria for forecasting high daily PM10 air pollution levels in Naples. Pollution crises\udoccurred when (a) the wind stress was between 1 and 2 m/s, (b) the thermal inversion between two\udstrategic locations was at least 3C/200 m and (c) it did not significantly rain for at least 7 days. Beside\udthese meteorological conditions, severe pollution crises occurred also during festivals when fireworks\udand bonfires are lighted, and during anomalous breeze conditions and severe fire accidents. Finally, we\udpropose a basic model to predict PM10 concentration levels from local meteorological conditions that\udcan be easily forecast a few days in advance. The synthetic PM10 record predicted by the model was\udfound to correlate with the PM10 observations with a correlation coefficient close to 0.80 with a con-\udfidence level greater than 99%. The proposed model is expected to provide reliable information to city\udofficials to carry out practical strategies to mitigate air pollution effects. Although the proposed model\udequation is calibrated on the topographical and meteorological conditions of Naples, it should be easily\udadaptable to alternative locations.